Simulation logic and assumptions

structural = apps / 1000 + integrations / 2500 + (agents / 100) ^ 1.3 load = structural × (1 + 0.1 × velocity) × (1 + transition) OCC = 6.0 × complexityTolerance × (1 + controlEffectiveness) ratio = load / OCC bands : Stable < 0.65 ≤ Watch < 0.80 ≤ Entropy Danger Zone < 1.00 ≤ Beyond the OCC progression: Complexity (<0.80) → Entropy (0.80–1.00) → Chaos (1.00–1.20) → Truth Erosion (1.20–1.40) → Anarchy (≥1.40) hop time = 20 / max(ratio, 0.5) minutes per dependency hop

txValue = min(average attempted transfer $0.6M, per-transaction authority limit) flowRate = 2 transfers/min × txValue tCeiling = cumulative ceiling / flowRate (if a ceiling exists) detection = min(detectMin, tCeiling + 2) action delay = 0 already in force | 2 automated | approvalLatency (+30 to find an unregistered agent's owner, +10 to agree business authority) | ∞ unavailable flowStop = min(240, detection + fastest chosen flow-stopping action); session revocation alone adds 10 min of queued instructions exposure = flowRate × min(flowStop, tCeiling) × (1 − 0.25 bank screening) affected = min(reach, 1 + floor(propagationStop / hopTime)) restoreHours = (8 + 3 × affected) × (1 − 0.4 × recovery) × (ratio > 1 ? 1 + 2(ratio − 1) : 1) × (evidence preserved ? 1 : 1.2) × posture × people + decisionPrep/60 posture : targeted 1.0 | restricted 1.3 | broad 1.6 (recovery expense × 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.0) people : upboard 0.85 with Dromio skill map, 0.95 without | contractors 0.95 | overtime 1.10 interrupted = revenue/8760 × share × hours (+ shutdown window if chosen) share: suspend all = min(0.6, 0.05 × reach) for 0.8 × hours | continue = 0.05 × affected | alternative workflows = 30% of that (approved) or 60% (manual) pendingShare(t) = 0.67 × e^(−t/360) recovered : accept AI explanation 0 | recall all = exposure × pending(prep+10) × 0.9, plus 14 × $0.15M supplier disruption | verify = exposure × pending(verifyMin) × 0.9 verifyMin = (FORT ? 20 : 180) + decisionPrep truth = provenanceCoverage × 100 − 40 (AI conclusion treated as fact) − 20 (recall without verification) − 15 (no evidence) − 10 (manual workarounds) − 10 (overtime) accountability = consequential actions with a named owner / all consequential actions incidentCost = (exposure − recovered) + interrupted × 0.4 × 0.35 + recovery expense + labor (120 $/h) + people option + supplier disruption EV impact = −(incidentCost + year-one investment) (one-time; modeled annual opportunity shown separately and never added)